MMA Picks: Getting Picks in Early

Online sportsbooks have embraced MMA as much as the mainstream media has, with most of them putting up MMA odds on all the fights. One of the things I believe is important to making a profit when betting on MMA is to look for great line value very early. I’ve been saying this often in our MMA picks and analysis forum over at www.BetRepublic.com (there is great MMA info there every day)…if you are into betting on the events, you want to make sure you have a look at the odds when they are first posted at your sportsbook, as you can find some gems.

Yes, you can also run some risk of additional news coming in that goes against your original bet, or after doing some more in-depth handicapping you realize you’re not as confident about the matchup and the fighter you chose, absolutely it can happen. That said, if you have done your homework, know the fighters, assess the lines properly and pick your spots, you can find some real gems when you step up when the lines first hit.

Let's take the last UFC as an example. Early lines appeared for Penn at around -190 or so. If you look at value, Pen at under -200 is awesome. Considering he was in great shape and came off the Florian fight with gas still in the tank, Penn was a good bet against anyone in the division, especially at anything under -200. BJ came in about -300 before the event, which was still decent but it wasn't sub two-hundred. An early commitment would have paid out handsomely.

The Alexander/Slice fight for the Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale showed this trend as well. With Alexander opening around -120 at most online sportsbooks and then gaining momentum as the favorite, he closed at the -300 range. An early bet would have been a good bet. If Alexander won of course. This just reminds us that we have to do our homework on the fighters as well. As you know, there's more to the bet than the making sure you get great odds.

If you know who you want to bet and will stick with that choice no matter how the action affects the lines, an early bet should be considered. Check out the day the lines come out as we always have a healthy discussion and a few early picks. Futures on your favorites can be a great value. Don't rush in though, but watch closely and when you see some movement and the direction they take, you should start considering your choices.

The main thing is to check lines early and to keep checking back. The next most important thing is to place the bet, because if you don't wager, you can't win.

Good luck with your MMA Picks.

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Indianapolis Colts Vs Jacksonville Jaguars – Thursday Night Football

Will the 13-0 Indianapolis Colts opt for safety over perfection on Thursday Night NFL in Jacksonville Jaguars?

Will the 13-0 Indianapolis Colts opt for safety over perfection on Thursday Night NFL in Jacksonville Jaguars? Indy has clinched top-spot in the conference and the AFC South and home-field throughout the postseason and there has been some suggestion that the team could rest its starters.

The Colts say they will play their starters on Thursday, for part of the game at least. “We’re going to approach the 14th game exactly like we did one through 13,” Indy head coach Jim Caldwell told The Indianapolis Star.

“We’ve got a great rhythm in terms of our preparation and we’re going to go out and play it just like we have done the previous 13.”


While undefeated Indianapolis is 7-3 SU in its last 10 overall against Jacksonville, it is also 3-7 ATS. The game is currently off the board. Both the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints are currently sitting at 13-0 SU and could very well go 16-0.

The Colts are listed at +190 to go undefeated during the regular season while the Saints are -130. Read More!

Cards’ Fitzgerald Uncertain For Sunday

After suffering injuries on MNF, Arizona Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald might not play in the team’s game against Detroit this Sunday.

According to The Arizona Republic, Fitzgerald had an MRI which revealed “a bone bruise and a sprained right knee,” although there is said to be no structural damage.

The team will make a decision on his status this week and Arizona is a big 12-point road faves for the Detroit Lions game.

The Cardinals are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 overall games against the Lions and have taken the Over eight times in those 10 games.

The WR suffered the injuries in a 24-9 road loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night — the Cards failed to cover at -3. Read More!

UFC Betting: Penn vs Sanchez

B.J. Penn and Diego Sanchez have kept the posturing to a minimum as Saturday's UFC lightweight title fight in Memphis approaches.
The same can't be said about the fighters' swarming camps, which opened up Thursday night about their fighters, their game plans and their thoughts on the other guy.
Asked for his opinion of Sanchez, the 27-year-old challenger, Penn's longtime trainer Rudy Valentino didn't bury the texted lede: "Diego will defeat himself mentally in this fight."
Sanchez's legendary Brazilian jiu-jitsu coach Saulo Ribeiro laughed.
"He's one of the strongest guys mentally I've ever met in my life," Ribeiro said over the phone. "He just refuses to give up. He refuses to quit."
So, why will Sanchez be the first fighter since Jens Pulver in 2001 to defeat Penn (14-5-1) at 155 pounds?
Start Online Betting on this match at our sportsbook
"I think B.J. has been a great champ for 10 years, but the sport is evolving so much that I think Diego is ready to take it to the next level," said Ribeiro, implying Penn, one of MMA's most complete fighters, still just 30, has gone the way of month-old organic milk.
Back and forth, not malicious but invested and full of faith, supporters talked up their man and downplayed the other. Standing out on both sides was a sense of inevitability, as if the main event at the FedExForum (UFC PPV, 10 p.m. ET) was mere formality. And that determination was going to be the difference.
"It's the natural order," said Ribeiro, who joined his brother Xande, cardio man Steve Maxwell, boxing trainer Tony Palafox, and Olympic silver medalist wrestler Steve Abas in San Diego to prepare Sanchez (21-2). "Nobody hunted B.J. That's what I want to see. How will the champ react? He's never been hunted at 155. And Diego really believes he'll be the aggressor and will take the fight wherever he wants."
Belief and execution aren't the same thing, countered Penn's boxing trainer Jason Parrilo, who ran camp in Costa Mesa, Calif., with conditioning gurus Marv and Gary Marinovich (of the Todd Marinovich Marinoviches), and the entertaining Rudy V.
"Diego hasn't shown my any type of threat but his intensity and his willingness to go for it," Parrilo said. "With B.J., he's going to fall into something he's not prepared for.
Start Online Betting on this match at our sportsbook Read More!

UFC Betting: Penn vs Sanchez

B.J. Penn and Diego Sanchez have kept the posturing to a minimum as Saturday's UFC lightweight title fight in Memphis approaches.
The same can't be said about the fighters' swarming camps, which opened up Thursday night about their fighters, their game plans and their thoughts on the other guy.
Asked for his opinion of Sanchez, the 27-year-old challenger, Penn's longtime trainer Rudy Valentino didn't bury the texted lede: "Diego will defeat himself mentally in this fight."
Sanchez's legendary Brazilian jiu-jitsu coach Saulo Ribeiro laughed.
"He's one of the strongest guys mentally I've ever met in my life," Ribeiro said over the phone. "He just refuses to give up. He refuses to quit."
So, why will Sanchez be the first fighter since Jens Pulver in 2001 to defeat Penn (14-5-1) at 155 pounds?
Start Online Betting on this match at our sportsbook
"I think B.J. has been a great champ for 10 years, but the sport is evolving so much that I think Diego is ready to take it to the next level," said Ribeiro, implying Penn, one of MMA's most complete fighters, still just 30, has gone the way of month-old organic milk.
Back and forth, not malicious but invested and full of faith, supporters talked up their man and downplayed the other. Standing out on both sides was a sense of inevitability, as if the main event at the FedExForum (UFC PPV, 10 p.m. ET) was mere formality. And that determination was going to be the difference.
"It's the natural order," said Ribeiro, who joined his brother Xande, cardio man Steve Maxwell, boxing trainer Tony Palafox, and Olympic silver medalist wrestler Steve Abas in San Diego to prepare Sanchez (21-2). "Nobody hunted B.J. That's what I want to see. How will the champ react? He's never been hunted at 155. And Diego really believes he'll be the aggressor and will take the fight wherever he wants."
Belief and execution aren't the same thing, countered Penn's boxing trainer Jason Parrilo, who ran camp in Costa Mesa, Calif., with conditioning gurus Marv and Gary Marinovich (of the Todd Marinovich Marinoviches), and the entertaining Rudy V.
"Diego hasn't shown my any type of threat but his intensity and his willingness to go for it," Parrilo said. "With B.J., he's going to fall into something he's not prepared for.
Start Online Betting on this match at our sportsbook Read More!

Buffalo Bills Vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Week14 Predictions

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills, Sunday Dec 13, as both teams have no chance at a playoff berth, but rather playing to save face. Buffalo won their last meeting over Kansas City 54-31. Most of the Sportsbook have the Chiefs as -1 point home favs over the Bills with the over/under set at 37.5 points.

The Bills (4-8) lost to NY Jets at home in Week 13. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick made 9 of 23 passes for 98 yards with an interception; overall he’s thrown for 1,003 yards with six TD’s and seven interceptions in seven starts for a 59.5 passer rating. RB Marshawn Lynch had six carries for 60 yards, while WR Lee Evans made one catch for 38 yards. WR Terrell Owens made three catches for 32 yards. To say the Bills lacked offense would be an understatement.

Despite the Bills lack of offense, they are the fifth best team at stopping the pass and they’ll be against a Chiefs offense that is ranked 29th . Their 19th ranked running game, led by RB Fred Jackson’s 632 yards rushing and three TD’s, will go head to head with the Chiefs 27th ranked rush defense.


The Bills are looking for a head coach, in case you’ve forgotten. This was a chance to dazzle any prospective employees out in the field. But if owner Ralph Wilson is looking to find a quality coach, and perhaps some good personnel people, this was a pretty sorry want ad for Buffalo Bills football. Read More!

NFL Picks: For the Upcoming Week 14 NFL

If the mighty haven’t fallen yet, they’re teetering.

Perennial pre-season favourites Pittsburgh and New England aren’t at the centre of the playoff discussion with just four weeks of regular-season football remaining. It’s certainly not the type of claim — regarding these two organizations — we’re used to hearing at this time of year.

Much can change in a short period of time, but you can mark this one down: if the Steelers (at 6-6) don’t guzzle the Browns on Thursday, their season is done.

Tom Brady and his Patriots (7-5) have a little more rope, but not a full coil. New England’s advantage could be the schedule. In the final two weeks, the Patriots face Jacksonville and Houston, two teams they’ll likely need to beat out to land a wild-card slot if they can’t harness the AFC East title.

• THURSDAY

Pittsburgh (6-6) at Cleveland (1-11) (+9.5)

The Steelers surrendered 396 yards-combined to Oakland last week. Defensive co-ordinator Dick LeBeau is legendary at making the right adjustments and history tells us to ride his coattails and QB Ben Roethlisberger’s arm when the season’s on the line. Take the Steelers.

• SUNDAY

New Orleans (12-0) at Atlanta (6-6) (+10.5)

How bad does Drew Brees have it? He takes his air show onto the immaculate carpet and conditions at the Georgia Dome seven days after ripping up the turf in Washington with 419 yards. Can we at least hit 500 this week? Brees leads the NFL in passer rating (111.3) and TDs (29) and faces the fourth-worst pass defence in the league. Take the Saints.

Green Bay (8-4) at Chicago (5-7) (+3)

Wasn’t it Chicago that was supposed the have the dominating defence? The Packers are fourth against the run and fifth against the pass. Since the Bears can’t do either (watch the logic kick in here folks …), take the Packers.

St. Louis (1-11) at Tennessee (5-7) (-12.5)

According to Accuscore, a simulator that forecasts the probability of teams winning games, the Titans have a nine per cent chance of making the playoffs. Miraculous comebacks don’t come around often and that loss to Indy last week likely ended things for Tennessee. They’ll take it out on the Rams this weekend. Take the Titans.

Denver (8-4) at Indianapolis (12-0) (-7)

Nice bounce-back shown by the Broncos the past two weeks after dropping four in a row. Denver faces a Colts team that astounds, given the injuries. Indianapolis has Peyton, but they’ve also dug up a good running attack led by Joseph Addai (two TDs last week). Take the Colts.

Buffalo (4-8) at Kansas City (3-9) (+1)

How meaningful is this one? Well for one participant, not really. Terrell Owens signed with a modelling agency this week to go with his reality show and breakfast cereal. "When you’ve got some good looks like myself, you’ve got to take full advantage of it," the sometime focused Bills receiver said. There’s no catwalk in KC. Take the Chiefs.

Cincinnati (9-3) at Minnesota (10-2) (-6.5)

The Bengals have underwhelmed lately. The Vikings need a rebound game after losing convincingly to Arizona. Take the Vikings.

Carolina (5-7) at New England (7-5) (-13)

Pats have dropped three of four and might be reeling, but Carolina is one soft spot New England can land on. Take the Patriots.

NY Jets (6-6) at Tampa Bay (1-11) (+3)

Rookie QB Mark Sanchez (sprained knee) sits and Kellen Clemens takes his spot. Tough break for the Jets, who’ve won two straight but the offence has dried up. Expect to see a lot of RB Thomas Jones, which should be enough against the league’s second-worst run stop. Take the Jets.

Miami (6-6) at Jacksonville (7-5) (-3)
Huge win for the Jags last week against Houston; ditto for Miami against the Pats. The Jags’ schedule down the stretch (Indy, at New England) is a brute and any hope for a wild card rests with a must-win at home this week. Take the Jaguars.

Detroit (2-10) at Baltimore (6-6) (-13)

The Ravens move forward after a trio of tough games (Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Green Bay). There’s no chance of a letdown Sunday with an opportunity to improve the playoff chances. RB Ray Rice is a great fantasy play. Take the Ravens.

Seattle (5-7) at Houston (5-7) (-6)

Rumblings have Houston coach Gary Kubiak in trouble and this is desperation time for a Texans team that should be playing better. Neither team has much of a run game, meaning Matt Schaub versus Matt Hasselbeck. Take Schaub; take the Texans. Read More!