UFC 111: St. Pierre vs. Hardy Live Match Preview and Odds

In continuing to look for some good action this month on UFC/MMA fights, I'm going to look at the big show. UFC 111: St. Pierre vs. Hardy offers some value in the MIr/Carwin match-up and the Alves/Fitch match-up.

Online sportsbooks have Mir at -140 and Carwin at +110. With Mir on the road back and looking better than ever, he is favored to win in this close match-up against a great wrestler and a strong, dangerous fighter who is used to finishing the fight in the first round. Carwin has been waiting for this fight and I expect he's more than ready. Carwin is undefeated and wants a title shot, so he has a lot on the line.

The only way I can see Mir losing is if he tries to prove he's as tough as Carwin. Mir's a bouncer and he definitely has an ego, but he also seems smart and dedicated. Mir needs to avoid trying to prove he's as tough as Carwin and instead prove that he's a smarter fighter than Carwin.  If Mir can make it through the first round, he should ultimately be able to put some of his submission skills to use. After that first round, I expect Carwin to press for the takedown and look to try to ground-and-pound Mir. That's when I see Mir taking control of the fight.

I do like Mir's chances on the ground if it goes there. That's why I'm betting on Mir in this matchup.

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The other opportunity for value at UFC 111 is Alves vs. Fitch. Currently online sportsbooks have Alves at -135 to Fitch's +105. Alves' last fight was the unanimous decision loss to GSP at UFC 100. At UFC 87, Fitch suffered a loss to GSP as well. I like Alves' chances here though.

This is the second time these two fighters will face each other. While Fitch defeated Alves via a TKO in the second round of UFC: Ultimate Fight Night 5 in 2006, I think Alves has had more impressive victories over better opponents lately. Excluding the loss to GSP for the title, Alves has been commanding his last fights. That's what got him the title shot at UFC 100. With Alves looking strong recently, Fitch's last six fights ended in decisions.

I don't think Fitch will outlast Alves' power and I don't think Alves will get caught by Fitch again. Fitch is a tough customer though and he will stand and trade big shots, but he just doesn't seem to have the consistent and big KO power that Alves can deliver. That being said, Fitch did stop Alves with some effective up kicks and punches last time they saw each other.

I'm not betting on it, but I'm looking for a second round KO by Alves. What I will bet on though is Alves for the victory at -135. That's good value to me.

Keep an eye on the lines as we're a few weeks out and they may start to move a bit as we get closer to the fights. Mir at -150 and Alves at -135.

Those are my picks for UFC 111 so far. Reach out our Sportsbook for betting  - UFC Betting